Recap for Week Ending 5/25

The Australian dollar took a hit this week, but not before I had realized a sizable gain @ 100.19 on the AUD/JPY pair. My trailing stop was a little tight at the time; otherwise, I would have made at least 10 more PIP's. I rebuilt my long AUD/JPY position at 99.64 as a hedge against my short XAU/USD position @ 655.22, and of course, for carry interest.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against most of the majors this week but kept worsening against the Canadian dollar. Apparently, broad weakness in oil and metals did not discourage traders from buying the Loonie and selling the greenback. U.S. oil conglomerates are probably buying CAD/selling USD to pay for the oil in Alberta, in large quantities. The trend will continue, or it will not. But since the USD/CAD pair is trading at 30-year-low levels, I've decided to go ahead and go long. If the trend reverses, I'll make money. If it doesn't, I'll average down. In the meantime, I'm earning interest on my long position.

Went short CHF/JPY because it's the least expensive way to buy the Japanese yen. Selling other JPY crosses and paying for associated carry interest will wipe out my positions in no time. And if I'm wrong, if the JPY weakness persists, I will be double-penetrated, especially with the GBP/JPY. Happy Memorial Day =)

Recap for Week Ending 5/18

My failure to act cost me dearly this week. I did not sell more gold when my guts told me to. XAU/USD went from 673 USD an ounce last week to 656. With my cash reserve and leverage ratio, the trade would have generated a 100% return even if I were to close it now @ 662.95 (the ask price).

The EUR/TRY pair chipped away 150+ PIPs. During this time, I was holding my cash in anticipation of a trend reversal.

USD/CAD seemed attractive when gold was dropping like a rock and the greenback was rallying against all the majors. I bought in twice based on ADX and MACD on the 3-hour chart. However, the signal turned out to be false. The long-term trend overwhelmed the short-term trend and my stops got hit. The currency pair has breached the Dec 1977 low of 1.0900; now it is sitting at 1.0882. Next support seems likely at 1.0820. Is this its "darkest before dawn," who knows? I would have to see how oil and gold behave before I cast my vote again.

I always tell myself that a mistake of commission is more expensive than a mistake of omission and that I should never be afraid of missing out. Guess what? It still feels shitty.

QTWW was @ 1.17; I didn't buy it. SBUX was @ 28.03; I didn't buy it. TBHS was @ 15.00; I didn't buy it. QTWW made a 28% comeback today and closed @ 1.51. SBUX closed @ 28.95. TBHS closed @16.59. And my cash was just idle! WTF?!

Oh, well, no use crying over spilled milk.

Open Order Statistics for Week Ending 5/4

Based on buy orders (@ prices above market price) and sell orders (@ prices below market price) . . .

AUD/USD S
EUR/CHF S?
EUR/GBP L
EUR/JPY L
EUR/USD L
GBP/JPY L
GBP/USD L
USD/CAD L
USD/CHF L?
USD/JPY S

long CHF > EUR > GBP > USD > CAD > AUD > JPY short

XAU, BDSI, etc.

Everything is happening as anticipated: Rising oil prices >> rising gold prices >> strengthening commodity currencies. BDSI is closing its up-gap on Apr 25. Today's low: 4.81; Apr 24 range: 4.51 - 4.76; Apr 24 close: 4.64.

If BDSI keeps trending down with low volume like it has been in the last ten trading sessions or so, any price below 4.50 is a good entry price, technically. Fundamentally, though, the company doesn't have much to offer in terms of value.

Spot XAU/USD 687.90 - 688.30. My average price 686.07. Down 218 PIPs. However, with my cash reserve (standing at 60% of my portfolio now), I'm ready to sell more gold to bring the average price up. If need be, I'll liquidate my USD/CAD and GBP/USD positions.