Friday, May 25, 2007

Recap for Week Ending 5/25

The Australian dollar took a hit this week, but not before I had realized a sizable gain @ 100.19 on the AUD/JPY pair. My trailing stop was a little tight at the time; otherwise, I would have made at least 10 more PIP's. I rebuilt my long AUD/JPY position at 99.64 as a hedge against my short XAU/USD position @ 655.22, and of course, for carry interest.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against most of the majors this week but kept worsening against the Canadian dollar. Apparently, broad weakness in oil and metals did not discourage traders from buying the Loonie and selling the greenback. U.S. oil conglomerates are probably buying CAD/selling USD to pay for the oil in Alberta, in large quantities. The trend will continue, or it will not. But since the USD/CAD pair is trading at 30-year-low levels, I've decided to go ahead and go long. If the trend reverses, I'll make money. If it doesn't, I'll average down. In the meantime, I'm earning interest on my long position.

Went short CHF/JPY because it's the least expensive way to buy the Japanese yen. Selling other JPY crosses and paying for associated carry interest will wipe out my positions in no time. And if I'm wrong, if the JPY weakness persists, I will be double-penetrated, especially with the GBP/JPY. Happy Memorial Day =)

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